Speaking of North Texas: The Best, Worst Game of the Week Is. . .

On paper, this might be a better match-up than WKU @ UNT

So this weekend on ESPN360.com you can watch the Western Kentucky Hilltoppers @ the University of Texas Mean Green.    According to Las Vegas, the score is expected to be 40 – 26.5.  This seems a bit ambitious considering this match-up features the #104 team v. #115 (there are 120 teams in FBS football, and five are tied at 115).  In a relative sense the score suggests nothing but razzle-dazzle in this game.  Based on what Las Vegas tells us, we should expect some big plays from the UNT offense.  However, statistically, that is not so.  Actually, when you look at the offenses of both teams, and you compare the offensive production v. the offensive efficiency of both teams, the edge goes to WKU.

Now, that being said, based on the chart above, it’s pretty clear that both teams have pretty lousy offenses.  Both have below average production and are below average on efficiency compared to the other 118 teams that make up the FBS.  In this case, it’s pretty hard to believe that UNT is going to hang 40 on anybody unless the defenses are pretty awful too.  Well, guess what.  The defensive units for both of these teams are also under-performers.

Yet again, we see that on average, UNT has the weaker of the two defenses.  If we look at the two teams statistically, then why would anyone favor UNT?  If you look at their schedule, their marquee match-up was against Alabama who beat them with a sack of doorknobs.  The score was 53-7.  They have only won one game so far this year, and it was against Ball State with a score of 20-10.  According to the TGOPoll, Ball state is tied with WKU for #115 in the country.  Based on the previous benchmark, 13.5 is pretty generous, and the 40 points required to get there is pretty steep.

Now, let’s look at WKU.  They were hired to be cannon fodder for both Tennessee and South Florida.  Against the vaunted USF defense, they hung 13 points.  When comparing common opponents between both schools (Louisiana-Lafayette, and Middle Tennessee State) WKU came out looking a little bit worse.  UNT was out-scored 75-55, whereas WKU was beaten 67-44.

We all know that the Transitive Property doesn’t apply to College Football (Just ask Michigan who came within 2 points of Iowa, only to get drubbed by like fifty-bajilllion points by Penn State, a team that Iowa beat by 10).  However, based on history and statistics, there is no reason to believe in the 40-point 13.5 margin butt-kicking that Las Vegas is expecting.  If you have ESPN360.com, and you are sadistic enough to want to watch this one, you’ll probably get some kind of sick pleasure out of this one.  But really, when you could be watching the Cocktail Party, would you boot up the old CPU and catch this slug-fest?

As for your hard-earned paycheck . . . Well, based on all of the stat crunching I have done this week, Big Red will be counting the Benjamins and lighting his Romeo y Julieta after this one.  On paper, the win could go to North Texas, but the cover should go to the Hilltoppers.

The “S” Words

On paper, it looks like this guy has a better pick-up line than "Let's Ball."

Given that I am a good, God-fearing man who enjoys sports and a beer now and again, I often find myself in a bar at some point during the week. My friends have pointed out that just about every time we go to the bar, I have some weird magnetism that causes divorced, drunk, angry old men to gravitate to me to talk sports.  This is particularly weird because I am a dude. Most of the time its utter jibberish. One time, this one dude repeatedly told me about his days at Ball State where he “had a shirt that said ‘Let’s Ball’ — and the girls knew what it meant, heh heh.” Another time, one of these dudes asked if I was actually old enough to remember when Hayden Fry coached at Iowa (he retired a year before I went there). But most of the time these conversations revolve around some long-forgotten great play that their favorite local team pulled off on a Tuesday night in 1968. I’m polite about it, but it is rather distracting.

However, there was one time where I was truly impressed by the random drunk dude that decided we were friends. His question was this:

“OK, if you like college sports, name all the FBS football teams whose mascot does not end in the letter ‘S.’”

What he was referring to is teams like the Ohio State Buckeyes have a team mascot (Buckeyes) that is written as a plural. Unknown to this guy, this is one of my favorite sports questions to pull on people at tailgate. If you enjoy being a know-it-all sports fan, or if you need to shut-up the arrogant jack-ass four tables over who has complained about the ref on every play, feel free to challenge him with that one.

If you haven’t already solved the question yourself, the answer is as follows:

The University of Illinois Fighting Illini
The University of Notre Dame Fighting Irish
The United States Naval Acadamey Midshipmen
Syracuse University Orange (formerly Orangemen, but they still count)
Stanford University Cardinal
The University of Tulsa Golden Hurricane
The Tulane University Green Wave
The University of Alabama Crimson Tide
Marshall University Thundering Herd
The University of Nevada Wolfpack
North Carolina State University Wolfpack

. . . and the one that stumps everybody no matter how hard they try:

The University of North Texas Mean Green

Welcome to “The Game on Paper”

One time, one of my Canadian friends told me, “Americans live to work.  We Canadians work to live.”  Never having been to Canada, I’ll have to take her word for it on what life up North is like, but I totally understand what she means about us Americans.  Yet, although we Americans are a hard-working and industrious sort when it comes to our jobs, there are some magic words that can totally derail the productivity of any American worker.  Whether you are a Chicago Teamster, a New York Stock Broker,  or a Lawyer  in Texas, the words “Did you see the game last night?” basically give anyone in America license to stop what they are doing and talk sports for at least ten minutes.

Now, this conversation almost always evolves the same way.  Initially, the parties involved  rehash the last game for a few minutes.  Maybe there were some highlights — a nice catch, a last second takedown, a good hit in the open field, a winning shot — whatever they were, they consume the bulk of the conversation for a little while.  But, as the conversation goes on (and it inevitably goes on) the merits of last night’s game fade into speculation about what comes next.  It may be the next game, the next series, the next season, or next year, but no matter what, the talk of the past always somehow leads to talk of the future.  And it is in this future speculation that we often hear the words, “On paper, we should be . . . ” and that is when the conversation really gets fun.

It is for that very reason that I have created thegameonpaper.com.  As an historian by training, a Market Researcher by trade, and a sports nut by accident, I have found over the years that I have some weird hobbies.  At the top of the heap is my love of crunching past sports data in new and unique ways that give me the edge in office pools, water cooler conversations, and at awkward parties.  The goal of this site is to bring those insights out in the open for discussion,  fact-checking, entertainment, and of course total ridicule.  So whether you are an avid fan, a data junkie, an on again/off again sports gambling addict, or a heckler, welcome to “The Game on Paper.”  Let’s play ball.